In the first quarter of last year, Xi'an's GDP growth rate ranked first among the trillion-yuan GDP cities, but this year it has fallen to the bottom, indicating a reversal in Xi'an's economy.
On April 29th, the Xi'an Municipal Bureau of Statistics announced that the city's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first quarter was 288.286 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 2.7% at constant prices. This included a value-added of 3.443 billion yuan in the primary industry, growing by 3.2%; 91.107 billion yuan in the secondary industry, growing by 1.9%; and 193.736 billion yuan in the tertiary industry, growing by 3.0%.
Upon review by First Financial, among the 21 trillion-yuan GDP cities that have released their first-quarter economic data, Xi'an's growth rate ranks last. Moreover, compared to the GDP of 283.411 billion yuan in the first quarter of 2023, Xi'an only increased by 4.875 billion yuan in the first quarter of this year, with a nominal growth rate of just 1.72%.
A relatively high base may be an important factor for Xi'an's poor economic growth rate. In the first quarter of 2023, Xi'an's GDP grew by 7.6%, ranking first among the 24 trillion-yuan cities, with a growth rate 3.1 percentage points higher than the national average. The GDP increased by 19.608 billion yuan in the first quarter of 2023, while it only grew by 4.875 billion yuan in the first quarter of this year.
A more detailed comparison shows that the indicators with lower growth in Xi'an this year had all achieved high growth last year. For instance, in the first quarter of 2023, the value-added of Xi'an's large-scale industrial enterprises, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households), and total retail sales of consumer goods grew by 11.6%, 8.0%, and 10.1% respectively, but in the first quarter of this year, they grew by 2.7%, -2.6%, and 0.1% respectively.
In addition to the base, the weakening of industry driving force may be a more critical factor affecting Xi'an's economic performance. Among them, the automotive manufacturing industry, which has been growing strongly in the past two years, has actually become a drag in the first quarter of this year.
According to the Xi'an Bureau of Statistics, in terms of industry, the total output value of large enterprises decreased by 8.8%. Looking at key industries, the total output value of the computer, communication, and other electronic equipment manufacturing industry grew by 10.8%, while the automotive manufacturing industry's total output value decreased by 3.4%, and the total output value of the railway, ship, aerospace, and other transportation equipment manufacturing industry grew by 8.3%. The automotive industry did not continue its high growth but instead experienced negative growth.
In comparison, in the first quarter of 2023, the total output value of Xi'an's equipment manufacturing industry grew by 16.4% year-on-year, with the contribution rate to the growth of the total output value of large-scale industrial enterprises reaching 80.3%, providing strong support for the city's industrial economic growth. Among them, the automotive manufacturing industry made a significant contribution, with its total output value growing by 37.5%.
However, since last year, the driving force of Xi'an's automotive industry has actually been gradually weakening.
Xi'an topped the list as the "city with the highest new energy vehicle production" in 2022, but last year it slipped to third place, with production not breaking one million vehicles. According to official releases, in 2023, Xi'an's new energy vehicle production was 983,800 units, a year-on-year increase of 25.9%. In 2022, Xi'an's new energy vehicle production was 1,015,500 units, with a year-on-year increase of 277.5%.Xi'an has not released data on the production of new energy vehicles for the first quarter of this year. However, the production of new energy vehicles in Xi'an accounts for more than 90% of Shaanxi Province. According to the National Bureau of Statistics database, the production of new energy vehicles in Shaanxi Province was 214,300 units in the first quarter of this year, compared to 225,200 units in the first quarter of last year, representing a year-on-year decrease of 4.8%.
Data from the Shaanxi Automobile Industry Association shows that in the first quarter of this year, BYD's vehicle production in Xi'an was 193,000 units; Shaanxi Automobile's truck production was 38,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 10.4%; Geely's vehicle production in Xi'an was 57,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 5.4%; and Geely's vehicle production in Baoji was 43,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 178.3%.
Feng Lei, Deputy Dean of the Firestone Creation Industry Research Institute, previously stated to First Financial that one of the reasons for the decline in new energy vehicles in Xi'an last year was the diversion of production lines for BYD's best-selling models. With the start and ramp-up of new factories in Changzhou, Fuzhou, and Hefei, some of the production capacity for Xi'an's best-selling models has been diverted.
This situation may continue to affect the vehicle production in Xi'an this year. Feng Lei also indicated that there will not be many new model changes at the Xi'an BYD base in 2024, as the new model changes for BYD are mainly concentrated in the factories in Hefei and Zhengzhou. Additionally, the designed production capacity of the Xi'an BYD factory is 900,000 units/year, and the current capacity has reached saturation.
However, despite the overall poor data for the first quarter, a month-by-month comparison still shows the momentum of Xi'an's economic recovery. The Xi'an Statistics Bureau previously reported that from January to February of this year, the increase in the value added of large-scale industry was -6.1%, and the total output value of the automotive manufacturing industry grew by -17%. By January to March, these two indicators had changed to 2.7% and -3.4%, respectively, indicating a significant recovery in Xi'an's economy in March.
The Shaanxi Daily reported that as of March, the development momentum of the automotive industry in Shaanxi Province has clearly accelerated. In March, the province's vehicle production reached 140,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 44.6%, which is 38.1 percentage points higher than the national average. The added value increased by 29.7% year-on-year, which is 20.3 percentage points higher than the national average. Among them, the production of new energy vehicles was 94,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 47%, which is 18.9 percentage points higher than the national average.