"Today I received 6 eggs, so happy!" An investor named Wang Le (a pseudonym), who "collected over a hundred eggs" in April, told Yicai that he started "raising funds and collecting eggs" this year. Even with fluctuations in the bond market, the products he purchased still yielded returns, which made for a very pleasant investment experience.
The "eggs" Wang Le referred to are the returns on investors' holdings of funds, mainly targeting bond products. Generally speaking, "collecting an egg" means a daily return of 0.01%, while "breaking an egg" means the opposite. Unlike current equity products, bonds present a peaceful scene of "raising funds and collecting eggs."
This year, against the backdrop of the overall fluctuation in the A-share market, medium and short-term bond theme funds have become favored by investors due to their stable return performance. Data shows that in the first quarter, the net subscription of related theme funds reached 97.57 billion shares, with some products experiencing several times or even hundreds of times growth in fund shares.
"The structural repair of the macroeconomy has not been continuously priced by the market, and the bond market's reaction to traditional bearish factors has been somewhat dulled. Coupled with the maintenance of a loose monetary environment, the situation of 'asset scarcity' for institutions has intensified, and after the market in the first half of April, the bond market continues to evolve in the direction of being bullish," a person related to China Merchants Fund told Yicai.
The scale of medium and short-term bonds has surged significantly.
This year, the A-share market has shown a general trend of fluctuation, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling to a low of 2,635.09 points and then gradually rebounding, hovering between 3,000 and 3,100 points. Data shows that as of April 22, the Shanghai Composite Index has risen by 2.34% year-to-date, while the mixed stock fund index has fallen by 4.28% within the year.
In this context, the bond market has been "tranquil." The CITIC Securities Short-term Bond Fund Index has risen by 1.17% this year, with most medium and short-term theme funds achieving positive returns. Wind data shows that as of April 19, among the 430 short-term bond theme funds with available data (calculated separately for different shares), 418 products have a positive return within the year, accounting for more than 97%; the average annual return is 1.25%; among them, 13 products have a return of more than 2% within the year.
Specifically, the highest return is from Penghua Yongda Medium and Short-term Bond 6-Month Fixed Open, with a return of 5.07% for Class A shares this year, and 4.94% for Class C shares; the performance follows closely with CITIC Prudential Zhi Tai Medium and Short-term Bond A/C, with a cumulative return of 3.23% and 3.19% respectively from the beginning of the year to date. In addition, several products such as Huitianfu Fengrun Medium and Short-term Bond A/C, Caitong Asset Management Hongxiang 30-Day Rolling Holding A/C, Bank of China Medium and Short-term Bond A, and China Merchants Bank Wenle Medium and Short-term Bond 90-Day Holding Period A have exceeded a 2% return within the year.
Benefiting from the steady performance, the attractiveness of medium and short-term bond theme products has increased, and various low-risk investment demands have poured into the bond fund market. From the recent first-quarter reports of several products, it can be seen that among the 429 medium and short-term bond theme funds (calculated separately for different shares), there was a net subscription of 97.57 billion shares in the first quarter.
From the perspective of merged shares, 36 medium and short-term bond theme funds increased their shares by more than 1 billion in the first quarter. For example, the latest share of Jiashi Medium and Short-term Bond is 21.146 billion shares, up 56.97% from the beginning of the year's 13.471 billion shares; Huitianfu Fengrun Medium and Short-term Bond increased from 58.952 million shares at the end of last year to 7.481 billion shares at the end of the first quarter, an increase of more than a hundredfold.A quarter sees a surge from tens of millions of shares to hundreds of millions or even billions of shares in several mid-short term debt-themed funds. For instance, the share increase of funds like CITIC-Prudential Zhi Tai Mid-Short Term Debt and Zheshang Mid-Short Term Debt has exceeded 20 times in a single quarter, while Penghua Global Mid-Short Term Debt RMB and Galaxy Tianying Mid-Short Term Debt have reached more than 5 times.
As of the end of the first quarter of this year, the combined shares of 12 mid-short term debt-themed products have reached over 10 billion. With a large influx of funds, many fund companies have imposed purchase limits on mid-short term debt funds to control the fund size. According to First Financial Daily statistics, currently, 166 mid-short term debt-themed funds are in a state of suspending large amount subscriptions, accounting for 38%.
"Raising funds and collecting eggs" has become a trend.
First Financial Daily reporters found in the discussion areas related to funds that this year, while equity fund holders are experiencing the fluctuations of the stock market, many bond fund investors have shown a "pastoral style". They call the daily performance "egg collection diary" and share their "egg collection" achievements for clocking in, such as "collected 10 eggs today, happy" and "basket egg collection".
The culture of "raising fund eggs" has become a trend, and in their view, it is because of the stable and continuous sense of gain. "Who wouldn't be tempted by gains every day?" Wang Le told First Financial Daily that although the returns of fixed income products are not much, against the backdrop of the high volatility of equity products, this "trickle" of gains is particularly precious and will have a better sense of experience.
At the same time, some public fund insiders also said in communication with First Financial Daily that this year, mid-short term debt has attracted a lot of attention with relatively low risk, low volatility and good liquidity, especially on the e-commerce side. The fund company's increased layout in this aspect of the product is also based on the demand for "wealth management substitution" and "low volatility fixed income +" direction.
Another fund market department person told First Financial Daily reporters that this year, a lot of funds from equity products have also poured in. According to his revelation, the source of funds for some mid-short term debt products that grew rapidly in scale in the first quarter is from the bank's wealth management end.
So, standing in the current market, how will the bond market develop next? Can it continue to be good?
"There is no obvious bearish news in the short term, and the market supply and demand pattern is difficult to change. The bond market in the second quarter may not have a significant reversal." Looking forward to the future, the aforementioned China Merchants Fund person believes that the fundamentals and institutional behavior are still likely to be favorable to the bond market, but it is necessary to be alert to the market stampede that may be brought by unexpected policies or regulations.
At the same time, he also reminded that the central bank has already indicated the risk of long-term yield, and has maintained the overnight price at a high level. Recently, it is necessary to closely follow the dynamics of the capital market to avoid market changes caused by regulatory factors. It is possible to consider the allocation opportunities of coupon assets and the wave opportunities of duration assets, while paying attention to the liquidity of the portfolio."It may be difficult to see more aggressive stimulus policies in the short term, and the probability of a bond market reversal is relatively low," said Wang Yuechao, fund manager of Yongying Yueyue Xiang 30-day Fund, to Yicai. The current issue is that the spreads of medium and short-term bonds and credit bonds have been compressed to a very extreme level, and if the cost of funds cannot significantly decrease, then the leveraged carry space will also be quite limited.
"So the market has been more influenced by institutional behavior recently, and the main focus in the future will be on the changes in the liability side of various institutions, as well as the actual implementation of supply," Wang Yuechao said.
"The core factors of the bond market may lie in prices, financing demand, and the supply of government bonds," a person related to Guangfa Fund believes that the overall loose liquidity has supported the medium and short-term bonds; the long-term fundamentals are still favorable for the bond market. Continuous attention should be paid to the market's emotional interpretation and changes in the interbank liquidity. It is expected that the market will maintain a trend of being biased towards fluctuation. At present, the long-end returns are at the lower end of the fluctuation range, and the logic of abundant money may continue to support the performance of the bond market.